The days of rumours and gossiping are over – Arsenal’s interest in Alexis Sanchez appears to be as concrete as you’re likely to find in a busy summer transfer window.
With various journalists and twitter “in the knows” stampeding football fans with contradicting claims and laughable exclusives, I’ve decided to take a deeper look into the saga – armed only with common sense and the ability to spot a phoney news story a mile off.
I’ll be debunking every fake exclusive, silencing every false transfer expert, and analysing every possible outcome of the Sanchez saga – including all possible suitors and the transfer fee they’re likely to pay. Let’s begin:
What’s been said?
In short: a lot.
Contradicting sources bring us three possibilities – the player wants a move to Arsenal, the player wants to go to Italy, and the player wants to stay at Barcelona. The latter comes from various outlets in Spain, which can be dismissed for various reasons. Barcelona would want their local press to help them negotiate a high fee for the Chilean international and spreading rumours that the forward wants to stay at the Camp Nou is a vital part on of that plan.
The other two possibilities are harder to debunk.
Would Sanchez want to head to Italy? Possibly – the Italian climate and setting is much more inviting than rainy England, and it makes sense for a player used to living in Spain to want to move to a similarly sunny country. However, what club would Alexis want to play for there? Juventus seems like the only option at this point in time, and there hasn’t been much talk of them showing an interest in the star as of late.
So does that leave Arsenal as his “real” favoured destination? Yes and no is the answer. I’m not convinced that we’re top of the list of the teams that the Chilean international wants to link up with this summer. It is far more likely that the player only favours a move to Arsenal over Liverpool, with the history-rich Reds the only other team who have made contact over signing the player. The reasons are simple: Wenger, London, and an ever-presence in the Champion’s League. However, I don’t think his preference for Arsenal would remain if a team like Manchester City or Juventus made their interest known to the player. Despite the many positives of moving to Arsenal, I’m not so sure we can compete with teams who are able to offer ludicrous wages and near-guaranteed trophies. Then again, Özil turned down similar offers to sign for us, so you never know. Arsene Wenger can be very convincing.
So, the answer to the first conundrum is simple. Arsenal do appear to be Alexis’ ideal destination – for now. I’m far from convinced it would stay that way if another team joined the negotiations though, so don’t order your Sanchez shirt just yet.
Have bids been made?
Definitely – Barcelona have confirmed there have been bids launched for the player, and although they might have lied in order to encourage clubs to act fast, I don’t think that’s the case this time around.
The first definitive “bid” would have come from Liverpool. The Reds are currently in heated negotiations with the Catalan club over the transfer of Luis Suarez and it’s almost a certainty that they’ve discussed adding Sanchez to the deal. Although this isn’t the same as offering cash for a player, it means that the Chilean has at least one club willing to take him on this summer.
Whether or not Liverpool have binned this idea is debatable. The problem they face is that Luis Suarez has a release clause in his contract – one in the region of £70-£80 million. They reportedly won’t let their star striker leave for anything less than that amount, which makes it hard for Barcelona to arrange a lower fee. However, if Alexis Sanchez was included in the deal, the bargaining power the release clause grants becomes void. Sanchez would knock around £30 million off Suarez’ price, so Barcelona would no longer be restricted by his release clause when it comes to negotiating, as the fee to go alongside the Chilean would be up for debate.
This could harm Liverpool in the long run, as it might mean they’d get a package worth a lot less than £80 million if Barcelona were smart with their terms. For example, the Spanish giants could decide Sanchez is worth £40 million if included in the Suarez deal. They could also start lowering the amount of cash they want to pay alongside the player since they’d no longer be forced to meet a definitive release clause. Therefore, we can’t be certain Liverpool are still interested in signing Sanchez at this point in time.
As for Arsenal, it’s been rumoured that they’ve launched a bid of £16/£25/£32 million – depending on who you ask. Although the figure is up for debate, every source seems adamant that an official bid has been launched, so you’d expect that much to be true.
There are currently no noteworthy reports of the bid being accepted, so Barcelona are either after more money or want to persuade Alexis to join Liverpool. If Sanchez stands his ground, the latter won’t happen, and that just leaves us to negotiate a fee with Barcelona in order to get our hands on the forward.
What could go wrong?
The only thing that could scupper Arsenal’s hopes of signing Sanchez is if a more attractive club steps in and makes their interest known. A big club in Italy could capitalise on the player’s desire to head to Lo Stivale and make a last minute offer – something which might be hard for Arsenal to compete against if Alexis really does want to move to a certain country.
I wouldn’t rule the likes of Manchester City and PSG out either. If either decided they wanted to make a late move for the Chilean, they’d be able to offer mega-wages and high transfer fees Arsenal couldn’t compete with. Chelsea might also decide to step into the ring and table a big money offer. They could offer Sanchez’ desired London setting along with much higher wages than Arsenal could, although their lack of stability and lesser manager may go against them.
And of course, Barcelona could refuse to sell to us and force Alexis to head to Liverpool in order to pave Suarez’ path to the Camp Nou – although this seems unlikely given Alexis’ stance.
Will Arsenal sign him?
At this point in time, I’m fairly confident Sanchez will be an Arsenal player next season. His options in Italy are extremely limited, and the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea have other concerns this summer.
I don’t see Liverpool’s interest as much of a threat – they’ll probably force Barcelona to pay Suarez’ buyout clause, giving them more money to play with this summer.
It looks like Wenger might just be about to pull off another “Özil-deal”. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.