Statistically, Why Did Arsenal Fall Short Of Title Challenge?

When first going about this article I was going to go down a path that included ridiculous stats such as goal difference to points. But when looking back at the title, I simply looked at the table of last season. It finished like this:

Arsenal was simply seven points, or three less wins, two more draws, and one more loss than the champions, Manchester City. So the questions now coming up are: how could have Arsenal won the title? Where could Arsenal turn those draws and losses into wins? Could Arsenal have won more games?

The first thing I noticed was this:

Our home form was fantastic. The only game we lost at home, was our first game against Aston Villa. To me, Arsenal weren’t up for that game for some reason. However, that is a theme throughout Arsenal’s season.

Then there was our away form. Six losses and a +2 goal difference is dreadful in my mind. I looked further and our draws and losses away from home were:

Draws:

1-1         West Bromwich Albion

2-2      Southampton

Losses:

3-0      Everton

6-0      Chelsea

1-0         Manchester United

5-1      Liverpool

6-3      Manchester City

1-0         Stoke

Looking at these, now you can see why I said Arsenal might’ve not showed up for some big games. Although, that might be true, it’s also good to know that four out of six of those defeats happened in the months of February, March, and the beginning of April. Those months are significant because that was by far Arsenal’s worst stretch of games in the season.

Here’s the game list:

To be honest, Arsenal was dreadful throughout this period. Here’s the form guide:

Arsenal was 12^th best in form, getting three wins, three draws, and four losses. Arsenal was also the 5^th worst in goals scored and 4^th worst in goals against. All of these stats are simply dreadful. I looked at every game to try and find each game’s storyline.

Each game had it’s own story. For whatever reason, the games against Liverpool, Chelsea, and Everton, Arsenal didn’t show up and were outplayed. The Manchester United game Arsenal were fatigued, just like last time they played them, and couldn’t get over the line for a vital three points. Stoke was a terrible loss and should’ve never happened. The match against Swansea was only a draw because of a 90-minute-own-goal by Flamini. So that was two vital points dropped. Lastly, I think the draw against Manchester City is a good result.

I dove deeper and I found something interesting. Throughout those months of February to early April, Arsenal had 20 injuries of different severities and lengths. In those 64 days of poor form, here are the notable injuries:

Walcott out for the entire 64 days (100% of the time)

Ramsey out for 60 days (94% of the time)

Wilshere out for 42 days (66% of the time)

Özil out for 38 days (59% of the time)

Monreal out for 36 days (56% of the time)

Koscielny out for 26 days (41% of the time)

Gibbs out for 24 days (38% of the time)

Vermaelen out for 24 days (38% of the time)

Those list of injuries really say it all, in my opinion. Walcott, Ramsey, Wilshere and Özil would’ve provided goals while Ramsey, Wilshere, Monreal, Koscielny, Gibbs, and Vermaelen would’ve reduced the 30 goals we let in in the ten games we played.

This list of injuries reminds me of the season where Arsenal had to play with four centre backs across the backline due to our long list of injuries. Hopefully this doesn’t become a reoccurring theme. Arsenal is making a few big statements with signings in these few windows with Özil and now rumoured Sanchez, Debuchy, and Lars Bender. We’ll see how Arsenal fair next season. Could Arsenal challenge for the title? Or will injuries halt their ambitions yet again?

By Steven Scott – @OneTouchSoccer – OneTouchSoccer.tumblr.com